🤖 When will we reach "human-level" AI?

Hi AI Futurists,

Today, we’re reacting to Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis’s recent comments on general intelligence (AGI)—AI that can match or surpass human intelligence—and when he believes AGI might emerge. While some think he’s being optimistic, others believe it could happen even sooner than expected. Let’s take a look.

Here’s our agenda.

• Artisan

• When will we reach “AGI”?

• Top 3 selected AI tools

• Top news on the AI horizon

Best,
Lex

P.S. A big thanks to everyone who shared their feedback on how we can make this newsletter better. We’re always looking to improve.

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How AI is Impacting the World

When will will we reach “human-level” AI?

Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis believes artificial general intelligence (AGI)—AI that can match or surpass human intelligence—will emerge within the next five to ten years. Speaking from DeepMind’s London office, Hassabis acknowledged today’s AI systems are impressive but still lack the full range of human-like reasoning, planning, and adaptability. “There’s still a lot of things they can’t do yet,” he said, emphasizing the research challenges ahead. His prediction is more conservative than some in the AI industry, including Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, who expects AGI within two to three years, and Tesla’s Elon Musk, who has suggested it could arrive by 2026.

One of the biggest hurdles to AGI, according to Hassabis, is training AI to understand and interact with the real world beyond controlled environments like games. DeepMind has seen success with AI mastering complex strategy games such as Go and Starcraft, but translating these capabilities into real-world applications is proving difficult. A key area of progress, he noted, is in “world models”—AI systems that learn to understand and predict their surroundings. Multi-agent AI, where different AI models communicate and collaborate, is also gaining traction as a potential pathway to AGI.

The AI race is heating up, with Big Tech investing heavily in AGI development. Whether it arrives in five years or twenty, its implications will be profound, reshaping jobs, creativity, and even global economies. If AGI can truly match human intelligence, the way we define expertise, decision-making, and productivity may need a complete rethink.

Key Points

• Demis Hassabis believes AGI is 5-10 years away, later than some industry forecasts.

• The biggest challenge is getting AI to generalize real-world knowledge beyond controlled environments like games.

• Multi-agent AI and world models are promising areas of development.

• Other tech leaders, like Elon Musk and Anthropic’s Dario Amodei, predict AGI will arrive much sooner.

What We Think About It

The AI industry is split between optimism and caution on AGI timelines, but history suggests that transformative breakthroughs are often harder than expected. DeepMind’s focus on multi-agent AI and world models is a pragmatic approach, but whether AGI arrives in 5 years or 15, its impact will be massive. Expect continued AI advancements, but don’t bet on human-level intelligence just yet.

What You Can Do Right Now:

If you’re in AI development, consider how multi-agent systems and world models could shape future architectures. For all other careers, start planning for an AGI future—whenever it arrives, it will change how work gets done.

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That’s all for today, folks!

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